Methodology
Planning estimates, honestly labeled.
Goldspike models witnessed out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. It is a planning-range tool, not a clinical predictor. Numbers are midpoints of published ranges from AHA, CARES, ROC, and drone-AED trials.
Survival assumptions
| Pathway | Alive @ 1 hr (ideal) | Discharge (ideal) |
|---|---|---|
911 / EMS only Passive waiting. No bystander compressions, no AED before EMS arrives. | 25% | 9% |
911 + bystander CPR Immediate compressions buy brain time. CPR within 2 minutes ~doubles or triples survival. | 37% | 17% |
CPR + nearby AED before EMS The electrical hammer. When a shock is delivered before EMS arrives, survival jumps sharply. | 57% | 45% |
Quad-delivered AED + Meta Glasses guided CPR Symbiotic care. Drone-delivered AED plus in-ear low-latency guidance turns a scared bystander into a directed rescuer. | 62% | 45% |
Time decay: approximately 10% relative loss per minute past 2 minutes, floored at long-delay baselines. The slider on the home page maps directly to this decay curve.
Cost-saved model
Value assigned to one patient who is neurologically intact at hospital discharge, US planning estimate.
- Avoided ICU + inpatient (non-survivor path)Mean charges for post-arrest ICU care ending in death, US hospital data.$95K
- Avoided long-term care & rehabSkilled nursing, neurorehab, and outpatient therapy avoided when neurologic recovery is intact.$120K
- Lifetime productivity / lost wages recoveredMedian remaining working years × US median earnings, discounted.$650K
- Value of returned healthy life-years (QALY)Conservative $100K/QALY × ~5 quality-adjusted years for a witnessed OHCA survivor.$500K
- Total$1.36M
Sources
- American Heart Association — CPR & AED statisticsImmediate CPR can double or triple survival. Bystander AED before EMS materially raises discharge survival.
- CARES registry — OHCA outcomesUS EMS-treated adult OHCA survival to discharge ~9.1%; sustained ROSC ~25.8–30.6%.
- ROC (Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium)Survival 9% with bystander CPR only, 24% with AED application, 38% when AED delivered a shock. Public witnessed shockable arrests: 66.5% survival when bystander delivered the shock vs. 43% after responders arrived.
- Drone-AED feasibility studies (ScienceDirect, NEJM)Autonomous drone AED delivery beats ambulance arrival by minutes; survival falls ~10% per minute without defibrillation.
- WHO — World Report on Ageing and Health (2015)Intrinsic capacity framework: the composite of physical and mental capacities an individual can draw on.
Disclaimer
This tool is for education and planning. It is not medical advice, not a clinical decision aid, and not a substitute for calling 911 and performing CPR under the direction of a dispatcher or trained responder.